Bitcoin Politics: The Future of Bitcoin in the Next Presidential Election
A quick dive into the Presidential landscape for those in Bitcoin as of June 2023.
The Bitcoin and blockchain community in the United States are currently navigating a political minefield. Bitcoin and blockchain have, for the first time, emerged as subjects of intense discussion within the spheres of Congress and the Presidency.
The Republican-controlled House's recent attempt to unseat Gary Gensler, a Biden-appointed, Elizabeth Warren-aligned Chairman of the SEC, is a stark demonstration of how the cryptocurrency issue has become highly partisan.
As we look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, it is clear that the influence of crypto donors and voters will play a substantial role, should they choose to exert it. The focus of this analysis will be on the potential presidential nominees who may significantly impact the future of crypto and Bitcoin in the United States.
Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, continues to be the centerpiece of the current political climate. Regardless of personal sentiments towards him, there's no denying his profound influence on the political landscape since his 2015 announcement.
Trump's unique blend of propaganda, marketing genius, and anti-establishment stance continues to appeal to a distinct class of voters, which he mobilized significantly in the 2016 election. If this group remains politically active, Trump stands a strong chance of clinching the Republican primary.
From a crypto perspective, the Trump era was far from antagonistic. Despite referring to Bitcoin as "fake," his general laissez-faire stance towards regulation enabled the blockchain community to thrive.
Backing the US dollar, as Trump did, is in line with any president's national and geopolitical responsibilities and in no way is “Anti-Bitcoin.” His boomeresque tech-friendly outlook (deregulate and innovate) suggests his administration wouldn't pose the same level of threat to the Bitcoin industry as the current Biden administration has.
Backing Trump publicly and financially is a good bet for the industry.
However, the primary field is wide, and not just among Republicans.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is an increasingly popular figure, who has positioned himself as a pro-Bitcoin and Anti-CBDC candidate.
His explicit support for Bitcoin and opposition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) during his presidential announcement further cements this. Yet, he faces the Herculean task of unseating Trump. Despite lagging behind Trump in polls, DeSantis's growing momentum may put him in a strong position by the time of Florida's legislative session in January and February.
Politics is all about momentum. American’s have short memories and will not remember the situation two months to an election. Desantis has a solid chance of beating Trump in the Primary as long as he continues to build his momentum. He is behind in polls, but he is closing the gap month by month. By March of 2024, he could be ahead.
Backing Desantis publicly and financially is a good bet for the industry.
(A more important note is, unlike Trump, if Desantis loses the nomination, he will still be incredibly powerful in Florida. This means there is no wasted donation to Desantis as even if he loses, he can ensure Florida continues to be a strategic safe haven for the industry.)
Meanwhile, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez could emerge as a kingmaker.
Although he has not announced he candidacy at the time of this article, I believe he will likely due so in the coming week or two.
Suarez has no shot at winning the Republican Presidential primary, but he could ensure that Bitcoin stays a main topic of conversation. Further, depending on how he performs, he could through the nomination to Trump. There is more overlap between people who support Suarez and Desantis then there are people who support Desantis and Trump. Desantis won Miami-Dade by a comfortable margin in 2022, and voters in Florida would most likely be split between the two.
Further, Suarez could keep more moderate money or even some crypto money from going to Desantis. In some sense, as I see it currently, Suarez’s approach will be to use his Presidential run to jockey for position in the Desantis Whitehouse (by pulling out of the race) or in the Trump Whitehouse (by staying in the race.)
This actually makes Suarez a fairly decent political bet in the sense that no matter who wins (assuming it is a Republican), he could remain influential.
The scenario becomes more complex when we factor in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democrat side.
Though he has virtually no chance of securing the Democratic nomination, his staunch anti-establishment positions resonate with those on the far-left and the right. However, any donations to his campaign from the crypto community would essentially be a means to shift the Overton window, not to secure the presidency.
RFK. Jr. is much like a 2015 Trump, except without the advantages Trump had in 2016 to clinch the nomination (open election with no incumbent, huge field of primary candidates).
RFK. Jr. like Trump does not need anyone’s backing. He doesn’t care either. He is on an independent mission to expose what he sees as a corrupt political class and a corrupt intelligence apparatus.
RFK Jr. is much like a Bernie Sanders in that he speaks to a blue collar middle of the road Democrat. However the question remains whether RFK. Jr. supporters will still vote for a Biden or not vote at all. If they decide to not vote at all, backing RFK Jr. financially could prove to be useful as a foil to the Biden administration.
RFK Jr. can continue to shift the conversation in every State he campaigns in. The DNC will ensure he has no shot at an election (whether that be by moving the first couple of Primary States or just refusing to put him on the ballot).
Knowing this makes RFK Jr. a slightly bad but not terrible political bet. If you know he won’t win, but you know he can hurt the Biden administration, and if ousting Biden is your goal, than supporting RFK Jr. can be a worthy cause.
If you have limited resources however(like cash), it is most likely better spent elsewhere.
Conclusion
In summary, the Bitcoin and crypto community must consider the landscape of presidential frontrunners and make informed choices with the limited resources they have.
If able, people should place multiple bets, giving cash and resources to more than one campaign. While there is still a long way to the primaries, early donations matter most to future front runners.
Knowing who the front runner will be is anyone’s guess, but people in crypto are pretty used to betting.