Crypto's Political Blunder: John Deaton
John Deaton, A Republican running against Senator Warren, is a huge waste of political capital for crypto and digital asset community.
In what appears to be another misstep in strategy by the web3 political scene, some pundits and business groups are throwing their weight behind John Deaton, who has recently made Massachusetts his home, in a bid to dethrone Elizabeth Warren.
It's pretty clear that showing Warren the door from the Senate ranks high on the web3 agenda, yet in the art of political maneuvering, it's crucial to spend your political clout judiciously. Throwing support behind John Deaton is a huge waste of political capital. Here is why:
Missed Opportunities
Flashback to April 2023, I penned a couple of pieces on Warren and the tactical playbook to oust her. The game plan was straightforward: to unseat Warren meant having her challenged in the primaries. Given Massachusetts' firm Democratic leanings, coupled with Warren's popularity and entrenched networks there, the smart move for the web3 community would have been to pit her against another Democrat.
A 2023 poll had some interesting insights on potentially primarying Senator Warren. From Politico:
“Democratic insiders and business bigwigs are playing the guessing game on who's behind the poll, with several usual suspects denying any involvement to Playbook. Warren's camp has also distanced itself from this survey. Though her campaign has conducted recent polls, evident from a $36,000 payment to Beacon Research as noted in her latest campaign finance report, her spokesperson kept mum on the findings.
A key accusation from this enigmatic poll against Warren: her alleged insufficient backing for Joe Biden, notably her vote against the debt deal.
Yet, Warren isn't untouchable. Remember, she only managed a third-place finish in the state’s last presidential primary. A self-funded candidate or someone with the financial backing of the affluent business community could seriously challenge the senator."
This strategy carried its risks, but it was perhaps the only viable option if the goal was victory. Targeted advertisements could have criticized Warren from both the left and the right, slamming her for not being pro-business, while also highlighting her decisions detrimental to Massachusetts interests.
There were some initial moves, but ultimately, no key player from either the web3 domain or Massachusetts was willing to step into the arena. Warren cruised through the primary with no competition.
Possible Come Back:
With the primary season behind us, there were whispers of a competent and popular Republican contender stepping up against her. That person was none other than the former Massachusetts Governor, Charlie Baker. Baker emerged as the prime candidate to challenge Warren.
Baker boasts a long-standing history in Massachusetts, enjoying widespread popularity and significant Democratic support. Despite his moderate stance, leaning towards the center or even center-left for a Republican—evident in his openness to impeaching Donald Trump and supporting an assault weapons ban—his political positioning is what one would expect from a Republican in a staunchly Democratic state.
In the general elections, Baker went head-to-head with Jay Gonzalez, a figure from the private health insurance sector and a former secretary of administration and finance under Governor Deval Patrick. Baker won by a landslide, securing 67% of the vote—the highest tally on record of Massachusetts gubernatorial races and the best performance by a Republican governor in the state since Bill Weld's reelection in 1994. Baker's victory was on the back of his moderate social stances and a basic pro-business agenda.
Baker opted not to run for Governor again, leading to a return to the Massachusetts norm. However, his popularity was such that preliminary polls showed him potentially defeating Warren in her Senate reelection bid. According to the poll:
“The poll, which surveyed 750 Massachusetts voters last week, showed Baker leading with 49 percent support compared to Warren's 34 percent, even as she has announced her campaign for another six-year term in 2024.
Among those polled, 49 percent viewed Warren favorably, while 44 percent had an unfavorable view of her, and 7 percent were undecided.
“Senator Warren's unfavourability ratings outstrip those of her Democratic counterparts statewide, presenting an opportunity for Baker, who has consistently enjoyed broad cross-party appeal,” stated foundation spokesman Paul Diego Craney.
Craney highlighted that the poll demonstrated Republicans rallying behind Baker in a manner not mirrored by Democrats for Warren, with Baker leading significantly among independent or unenrolled voters by a two-to-one margin.”
Despite this potential, the web3 community did not advocate for Baker's candidacy. Not that their support would have necessarily spurred him to run, but it represented yet another missed opportunity to effectively challenge Warren's Senate seat.
Worst of All Options: John Deaton
And then there's John Deaton. It's not that Deaton isn't a decent person. His journey from humble beginnings to success is commendable, akin to Senator Warren's own narrative. I have no doubts about his intentions. However, his Senate campaign might end up doing more damage than good for the web3 industry.
First, Deaton is an outsider with no local base or coalition, limiting his voter appeal strictly to those who traditionally vote Republican—a strategy doomed to fail in Massachusetts.
That alone should be a red flag indicating probable failure. The numbers just don’t add up. But for the web3 sector, the implications are even more dire.
Deaton's candidacy gives Warren a perfect scapegoat to attack the crypto world. As a crypto attorney, she can paint him as the embodiment of the corporate, FTX-like entities she claims are out to undermine her. She can use Deaton as a symbol for the entire industry, portraying her victory over him as a triumph against big tech.
Moreover, Warren can associate any scandal directly with Deaton and, by extension, the crypto industry, turning him into a caricature. She'll also leverage Deaton's campaign to signal to her Senate colleagues and the Biden administration the purported threat posed by crypto backers to the Democratic party.
But there's another aspect of this race that further complicates Deaton's candidacy for the web3 community. The community's apparent lack of political savvy could lead to companies actually contributing to his campaign, ultimately squandering resources that could be more effectively allocated to more competitive races, such as those in Montana, Ohio, California, and Arizona.
The web3 community's resources are finite. Even a substantial war chest, like Fairshake's $80 million, pales in comparison to the staggering amounts poured into these elections. It must be spent wisely.
Conclusion
The decision to back John Deaton against Senator Elizabeth Warren, while audacious, inadvertently highlighted the importance of strategic discernment and the effective allocation of resources in political campaigns.
The initial oversight in not challenging Warren during the primaries—a time when her position could have been most vulnerable—was a missed strategic opportunity. The consideration of Charlie Baker as a potential candidate illuminated an alternative, potentially more viable path.
Baker, with his bipartisan appeal and proven track record, represented a missed avenue that could have aligned more closely with the community's objectives. However, the pivot towards supporting Deaton, despite his admirable personal journey and intentions, may have unintentionally strengthened Warren's position, complicating the community's aspirations further.
The Massachusetts Senate race serves as a crucial case study for the web3 community, emphasizing the need for strategic acumen, local insight, and a more strategic approach to political involvement.